Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Political Director Péter Sztáray’s Remarks AFGHANISTAN 2014 Conference April 20, 2012

April 21, 2012 12:17 PM

Organized by the Centre for Euro-Atlantic Integration and Democracy and Hungarian Institute of International Affairs

Hungarian Institute of International Affairs, April 20, 2012
As Prepared for Delivery

Ambassador Gyarmati, Director Zákonyi,

Thank you for organizing and hosting an event on such a topical issue.
Perfect timing of conference: following the NATO Jumbo Ministerial and the upcoming NATO Summit in Chicago.
Today I will reflect on the outcome of the Ministerial and relate them back to our contribution to Afghanistan in general, and to Baghlan Province in particular.

1. Transition

The process is well on track; even the tragic events of the first three months could not derail it. We do not expect the so-called spring offensive to cause any setbacks either.
This weekend showed that the ANSF has grown in size and competence.
Tranche 3 will be announced soon whereby 75% of the population will live in areas under Afghan control.
The timelines set at the NATO Lisbon meeting remain in place: Afghans assuming primary responsibility for their security across the country and complete withdrawal of the international combat forces by the end of 2014.
If the progress continues at present rate, by mid-2013 Afghan forces would be in the lead as coalition forces step back into a supporting role. Important to underline that this is a milestone, not a new end date in the process of Transition.
President Karzai’s recent comment on either speeding up the transition process or bringing forward the presidential election to 2013 is intriguing. In our view, transition should be allowed to run its course as originally planned.
At the same time, further steps are needed in electoral reforms. A successful election, a legitimate transfer of power yielding to a widely accepted mandate is essential in sealing the transition process.
Transition on Baghlan province: we have started consultations with our allies and the Afghan government on the timing of phasing out our PRT. It might be possible by end 2013, but it needs further consultations with allies.
Getting to transition is only part of the story, making it last is even more important. The key to this is an self-sustaining and capable Afghan Security Force – Army, Air Force and Police – that is able to protect the population. This takes me to the second main issue discussed at yesterday’s meeting.

2. Afghan National Security Force (ANSF)

NATO Training Mission in Afghanistan (NTM-A), and the EU Police Mission (EUPOL) Afghanistan have put major efforts in building up the ANSF. Provisions are also made for outfitting the forces with appropriate weapons and infrastructure.
Up until now emphasis was rather on size than capabilities. Focus needs to be shifted to the professionalization of the Afghan Security Force. This is also important in the sense that ANSF has a crucial role in forging links between the GIRoA and the population.
By the same token, ensuring the loyalty of the ANSF to GIRoA is as much important but this is primarily Kabul’s responsibility.
Maintaining ANSF will require outside financial and technical assistance beyond the end of Transition.
Still several questions need to be worked out:
- the right ratio between army and police;
- establishing cost-effective and transparent - funding mechanisms (probably separate trust funds are needed for the army and the police in order to meet the ODA criteria);
- the procedures for the gradual and condition-based downsizing of the ANSF;
- and measures for dealing with the social and security risks arising from the reductions of the security forces by 1/3.
We believe that the financing of the ANSF should be understood in the context of the Bonn Conference where the international community reaffirmed its commitment to support Afghanistan in the Transformation Decade. Accordingly, maintaining a capable ANSF is not NATO’s responsibility alone, it belongs to the international community as a whole. It is also understood that as the Afghan economy grows, GIRoA should increase its funding for the ANSF and by the end of the Transformation Decade (2024) it would underwrite it alone.
Hungary realizes that it needs to contribute its fair share to financing the ANSF, that is why we joined the so-called 3C (Coalition of Committed Contributors) Danish initiative which intends to mobilize adequate funding for the ANSF in the first years of the Transformation Decade.
The U.S. objective for the Chicago Summit to present a complete package for the financing of the ANSF is ambitious. Concrete pledges by certain countries, are expected which will send an important message on the international community’s long-term commitment to Afghanistan which takes me to the third point of my remarks.

Long-term engagement

The international community’s enduring relationship with Afghanistan will take shape in various forms:
1. NATO: The Enduring Partnership document agreed at the Lisbon Summit is being updated (programs for anti-corruption, women rights, ANSF capacity building, civilian aviation);
  
  NATO Strategic Plan for Afghanistan will also be adopted at the Chicago Summit outlining NATO’s future role in training, advising and assisting Afghan forces also providing technical support and enablers.
2. EU: Cooperation Agreement on Partnership and Development with Afghanistan: negotiations have started. Agreement envisaged to be balanced and ambitious covering cooperation in development, counter-terrorism, counter-narcotics, migration, trade, environment, culture, economy, etc. This would be the first coherent, legally binding overall framework for EU-Afghan relations.
  
  FAC Conclusions (November 2011) articulated commitments to (1) support Afghan efforts in strengthening policing and rule of law beyond 2014; (2) maintaining funding for cooperation and assistance programs in the years to come.
3. UN: Extension of UNAMA’s mandate. UN has a central coordinating role. A lot to offer in development, regional cooperation and humanitarian assistance. Need to change mandate after the end of Transition (2014).
4. Bilateral strategic agreements: UK, FR, IT also with US and AUS (ready soon).
Hungarian post-2014 engagement is reaffirmed by our mid-term strategy adopted last November. Our contribution will be both within the frameworks of NATO and EU.
The focus of our activity will shift to training and mentoring. This element is already there (OMLT in Baghlan; Air Mentor Teams; mentoring in Logistics; Special Operation Forces in mentoring role), but beyond 2014 this will be the main contribution.

Final Thoughts

In my remarks I focused mainly on the security aspect of the international community’s long-term engagement with Afghanistan at the expense of addressing the other two important elements: economic assistance and regional integration. These issues will be the central topics of the upcoming Kabul Regional conference and the Tokyo Conference on development assistance.
We have to realize, however, that security is paramount in achieving progress in these two other areas. The Chicago Summit by presenting a credible commitment to sustain the ANSF would send a positive message to the countries of the region and to public and private investors alike. Economic growth and development can be only sustainable if it is private sector driven. Private capital only goes to stable places, therefore security is fundamental.
The Chicago Summit and the Tokyo donor conference would be crucial in spelling out in concrete terms the international community’s continued support to Afghanistan. All these commitments should be geared toward reinforcing Afghan ownership and institutions.
At the same time, there are equally high expectations that the Afghan side will live up to its commitments made within the framework of the Kabul Process. Besides security, transition also encompasses governance, accountability, rule of law and combating corruption to make the process sustainable.
I did not go into that much detail regarding our presence in Baghlan as the two other speakers in this panel are in a better position to address our military and development-related activities there.