Within its sectoral training programme for the preparation of the EU Presidency, the Ministry of Defence organised its third presidency seminar on April 28 where well-known foreign and security policy experts outlined their opinions on the relation of the Hungarian national interests and the forthcoming Hungarian EU Presidency.

After an introduction by Mr Zsolt Nagy, head of the Defence Policy Department, MoD, Mr Ferenc Gazdag, head of the Department for Security and Defence Policy of the Zrínyi Miklós National Defence University (ZMNDU) gave a presentation on the strategic issues related to EU. Mr Péter Tálas, head of the Institute for Strategic and Defence Studies, ZMNDU, outlined some problems from a regional point of view. As the last speaker Mr András Rácz, research fellow of the ISDS, gave an overview on possible conflicts in the post-Soviet region that could be expected during the Hungarian EU Presidency.

Mr Ferenc Gazdag emphasised that the success of a rotating Presidency is basically influenced by the consistency of the general direction of the European integration and the aspirations of the actual rotating presidency. By considering these factors, we can identify certain specific Hungarian interests and incorporate them into the EU’s evolution.

Hungary is taking on the EU Presidency in a moment of fear of the economic crisis. By the time of our Presidency the Greek problem can easily spread to Portugal, Spain, and Ireland. The current Spanish-Belgian-Hungarian trio is moderating the European Union in a critical period when we have to work within a changing institutional system because of the Lisbon Treaty. These phenomena make it difficult for the Union to be able to make the necessary decisions in a deteriorating international environment.

Mr Péter Tálas, first of all, attempted to make clear what would a successful Hungarian Presidency look like. His answer was simple: the Hungarian Presidency has to avoid getting into similar problems as the Czech Presidency, it has to avoid big scandals in its internal affairs during the Presidency. Additionally, one could call it a success as well, if the Hungarian administration proved to be able to operate at the EU level. Besides these, we have to accept that the important questions will not be answered by us, and if we realize this, we can escape unpleasant situations. Another aim could be to see a bit further than the other member states and certain segments of the administration could offer far-reaching ideas regarding their fields of expertise.

However, it is not enough to do our job well but we have to know how to present it. So, people visiting Hungary have to leave with a feeling that Hungary did its best in order to foster cooperation. At this point, we cannot forget about the representatives of the media because it is very important what they tell and write about the events taking place in Hungary.

According to Péter Tálas, if we have well-defined specific interests to represent in the European Union, it is useful to convert them into regional interests. A good example for this is the Danube Strategy. If we are self-confident enough we can make a gesture towards our partners, and can represent the whole region, instead of concentrating on ourselves as a Presidency. This would be very important because of the economic crisis our region is moving into the periphery of the Union.

Several events are to take place during our Presidency which influence our region and the whole EU, and we will have to pay extra attention to them. Firstly, Croatia’s EU accession negotiations will arrive to their final phase and it is of great importance how Croatia will evaluate the role played by Hungary in this process. Secondly, it is a crucial issue whether Romania and Bulgaria will join the Schengen area next year. Apart from these,, the EU’s budget debate will be on its way well ahead, the Lisbon strategy will expire, and an energy- and climate package might be necessary. To manage all these matters we have to be extremely flexible, well-prepared and ready to make compromises. Basically, the existence or absence of these features is going to define the image of the Hungarian EU Presidency.

According to Mr András Rácz there will be no acute foreign policy problems between Russia and the European Union during our Presidency. One of the reasons for this is that Moscow has no territorial ambitions anymore (they were solved as a result of the war in Georgia). Russia has no resources to conduct aggressive foreign policy since they are absorbed by internal (Caucasian) problems, moreover, the struggle for the presidential elections has already begun. Nevertheless, the interests of the European Union and Hungary overlap in the post Soviet region to 95%. Our interest – as a small country – demands a strong and solid European Union to negotiate with Russia in various themes, so we have to ‘let the High Representative’s team work’.

Even though he does not see any possible acute conflicts between Russia and the EU in the first half of next year, András Rácz pointed at the possibility of several problems to emerge in the post Soviet region for which Hungary has to be ready to have answers. For example, the case of Karabakh, that is under Armenian authority at present. It is a worrying fact that Azerbaijan has significantly increased its defence budget during the past years and has developed offensive capabilities for its armed forces.

Another important problem could be in Belorussia where elections are to be held next year. Even during the last elections in 2006 there were intensive demonstrations against the current authoritarian regime, so it is almost certain that similar protests will be organised this time as well, considering that Belorussia is on the edge of bankruptcy and dissatisfaction among the population has grown. Finally, András Rácz touched upon the issue of Hungary’s energy security, our dependence on the Russian gas and its Ukrainian transit. He pointed out that Hungary would have the opportunity to represent its interest at a regional level when it comes to the problem of gas transport, and we would possibly find support as well.