It is the fifth month in a row that the leading economic indicator for Hungary showed improvement in December, but the pace of growth remains below the long-term trend, according to the indicator tracking Hungarian real economic cycles prepared by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

In December the indicator increased to 99.28 points from 99.15 points in November. The economy reached its low point in August last year with the indicator at 98.98 points when economic growth was negative for six months.

The indicator follows the long-term growth trend of an economy. A reading below 100 points signals below-trend growth in the long term, while one above that figure points to higher-than-average economic expansion.
In December the euro-zone index improved by 0.09 points to 99.56 points, whereas the composite indicator covering OECD countries was up 0.11 points to 100.36 points. The German figure saw a steep rise from 98.98 points to 99.20 points.

Among the countries of the region, the Czech leading indicator could improve but slightly from 99.31 points to 99.32 points. The relevant indicator for Poland increased from 100.23 points to 100.37 points, while the Slovakian figure declined from 99.35 points to 99.28 points.

The OECD publishes its composite leading economic indicators every month which signal real economic turning points 6-9 months in advance. The Paris-based organization takes into account data for the calculation of its indicator such as, among others, change in business orders and stocks, certain financial indicators such as stock market indices, change in business sentiment as well as in case of small and open economies like Hungary key data on a number of sectors and the trends of main trade partners.

(Ministry for National Economy)