The Spring Forecast of the European Commission includes economic projections which are similar to those in the macroeconomic outlook of the Convergence Programme. This confirms that the Hungarian Government’s forecast is reliable and trustworthy.

For 2014, the Commission is expecting economic growth to be on a par with the Government’s estimate: the economy is anticipated to expand by 2.3 percent this year and 2.1 percent in 2015, above the EU average. Current account surplus in Hungary will continue to be better than the EU average. The debt-to-GDP ratio within the EU is some 10 percentage points higher than the Hungarian figure.

The Commission is prognosticating that employment and economic activity will improve and the unemployment rate will drop below 9 percent. These predictions confirm the effectiveness of labour market stimulus measures introduced by the Government as well as the increasing share of the private sector in boosting employment.

Brussels considers Hungary’s positive trend reversal of 2013 to be sustainable, as – parallel to rebounding domestic demand – foreign trade surplus and the country’s financing capacity will also remain solid.

In comparison to the Winter Forecast, the Commission’s fiscal prognosis is more optimistic, as they are expecting fiscal deficits for 2014 and 2015 to be identical with the figures projected by the Convergence Programme and this affirms the sustainability of the Programme.

(Ministry for National Economy)